Дмитрий Дубилет

Записки студента MBA Лондонской Бизнес Школы

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Дмитрий Дубилет  14.02.2010 19:45:17

Поучительная история о голландских тюльпанах

Делюсь интересной историей, услышанной недавно на лекции по корпоративным финансам.

Считается, что один из первых пузырей в истории человечества произошел еще в 17 веке в Нидерландах. Тогда из Оттоманской империи в Европу впервые завезли тюльпаны, которые неожиданно стали сверх популярными среди богатых европейцев.

Причем, если обычные одноцветные тюльпаны (красные, желтые, белые) просто были дорогими цветками, то настоящая история развернулась вокруг тюльпанов экзотических расцветок - в крапинку и полосочку (сейчас известно, что тюльпаны получали такую расцветку впоследствии заражения редким цветочным вирусом. Но тогда о вирусе, конечно, никто не знал).

События, которые вошли в историю как "тюпаномания" (tulip mania) развернулись в 1634-1636 гг., когда на цветочном рынке появились спекулянты. Они активно начали торговать не только зараженными вирусом цветками и семенами, но и фьючерсами (правом на покупку в будущем). Цены начали зашкаливать. К примеру, на одном из аукционов была зафиксирована продажа букета из 40 тюльпанов за 100.000 флоринов (около миллиона современных долларов)!

Тюльпаномания охватила практически всю страну. Матросы, пекари, кузнецы - все бросились с головой в спекулирование, которое заключалось в том, что они закладывали свое имущество, покупали семена, немного ждали, пока поднимутся цены, и продавали их с наценкой. Многие из них действительно богатели за считанные дни (сейчас бы их назвали "Новыми голландцами"). Примечательно, что тогда же в Нидерландах свирепствовала бубонная чума - согласно одной из гипотез, в том числе и этим объяснялась готовность населения ввязываться в такие авантюры.

Тогда же под тюльпаны в массовом порядке начали отводиться голландские угодья. Вместо того, чтобы выращивать злаки или овощи, все бросились выращивать тюльпаны.

В какой-то момент о реальном спросе все позабыли, и начали торговать сами с собой. Конечно, продолжался этот пузырь недолго - в феврале 1637 года цены неожиданно рухнули, огромное количество голландцев стало банкротом за одну ночь.

Через два столетия, в 1841 году, шотландский журналист Чарльз Маккэй опубликовал об этих событиях ставшую знаменитой книгу Экстраординарные заблуждения и сумасшествие толпы, благодаря которой мы и в курсе этих поучительных событий. А тюльпаны с тех пор являются одним из самых известных товаров на импорт и национальных символов Голландии.

P.S. Если о первом финансовом пузыре, наверное, мало кто знает, то о последнем примере помнят, безусловно, все. Сабпраймы, конечно, не такие красивые, как тюльпаны, но суть у них в данном случае одна и та же.

P.P.S. Лекции у меня тут в самом разгаре. Интересные истории слышу практически ежедневно. Так что есть смысл подписаться на мой RSS здесь.



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Всегда нравилось изучать экономику на реальных историях

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да, занятно

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+

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В какой-то момент о реальном спросе все позабыли, и начали торговать сами с собой >>>> Геть як у нас, бгггг

но тем не менее этот "цветочный бизнес" никуда не делся, несмотря на тот печальный опыт, а наоборот растет семимильными шагами
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купи-продай -- это всегда весело :)
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Класс! Интересные факты. :)

А ще голандці вивели помаранчеву моркву )

Ни чего поучительного... Лучше уж Кузнеца почитать для аналогий с нынешним кризисом... А последний схожий кризис закончился весьма простенько (NASDAQ грохнулся на переоценках немат. активов)... Даже почти не заметили... 

Объяснишь истерический смех или опять будем рассуждать о необлаемом налогом минимуме?
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Интересно очень

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Интересно... но вот вопросец: покупали семена... А разве тюльпаны не луковицами размножаются?

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